Thursday, April 2, 2015

BUHARI WINS"


BUHARI WINS"
For Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), the road to the presidency has been long and tortuous. But with persistence, much improved party structures, with the Nigerian people on his side, and some luck, he eventually achieved his ultimate goal.
Until March 30, 2015, Abraham Lincoln was probably the greatest global example of persistence in the search for elective office by a politician, having lost eight elections into the state legislature, United States congress and vice-presidential nomination, before eventually becoming the president of the United States of America in 1860.

With his emergence as president-elect yesterday, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) has emerged as a modern example of persistence in the pursuit of political office. Before his emergence as president-elect yesterday, Buhari had ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2003, 2007 and 2011, ending his quest on each occasion in protracted legal battles.

Like Lincoln, he persevered and consistently presented himself for election in every election cycle for a period spanning 12 years, which climaxed in a fourth but successful attempt at the presidency in last weekend’s election. In all his previous attempts at the presidency, he emerged the runner-up, garnering millions of votes but mostly from the North where he hails from.
Those twelve years also saw him pursing his presidential bids on the platform of three different political parties. First was the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) on whose platform he vied in 2003 and 2007, unsuccessfully. In 2011, he jumped ship to press on with his presidential aspiration on the platform of the then newly formed Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) but lost to incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Until the March 28 presidential election, the 2011 election was his closest attempt at the presidency because of the clamour for a president of northern extraction following the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua.
But for a twist of fate, that defeat would have ended his presidential bid, as he had publicly declared never to vie for the Office of the President again.
In all those contests, the defeats he suffered were primarily because of lack of political platforms with a national spread, absence of funds for political campaigns and the toga of religious fundamentalist, which he just could not shake off.

His road to a successful bid for the presidency however began in 2013 when leaders of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), ANPP, CPC, and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), began to hold merger talks for the formation of a mega opposition party. Even though he had declared he would not be contesting for the presidency again, as the parties metamorphosed into the All Progressives Congress (APC) and with the defection of five PDP governors, along with several state and national legislators from their respective states, into the APC, his presidential hope was rekindled.
His emergence as the APC presidential standard bearer last December after a keenly contested presidential primary conveniently placed him on a stronger platform to achieve his presidential bid. The reason was clear: he had built a cult-like support base in the North and unlike in previous attempts, a pan-Nigerian platform which placed him in a good stead in the Southwest, which with the second largest voter population was now available to him to achieve his decade-old aspiration.

This was further boosted by improved financial resources, well-coordinated campaign rallies, and a campaign mantra that resonated with voters who had become weary with the ruling PDP. A combination of other factors, particularly the insurgency in the North-east which had claimed over 15,000 lives and displaced an estimated two million people, the perception by the people that Jonathan was ineffective in tackling the security challenges and corruption in government, also conspired to boost his presidential bid. In all of these, he was seen by many as the man with the solution to the plethora of problems plaguing the country.

For the security challenges, his background as military general became a plus. And for the problem of corruption, his track record of his anti-corruption crusade during his 18 months as military head of state was a reference point. His military postings as governor of the North-east and Minister of Petroleum in the military era, were also listed as some of his strong points to tackle the challenges confronting the nation. These became his selling points in all his campaign rallies that were driven by the Change mantra.
Even though the past six weeks had seen the insurgents in the Northeast pushed back and occupied territories recovered, Buhari, as President and Commander-in-Chief from May 29 will now oversee the consolidation of the gains made by the military. His government will also be saddled with the onerous task of rebuilding devastated communities in the North-east and resettling millions of internally displaced persons.
He would also have to confront the hydra-headed problem of corruption that many see as the bane of Nigeria’s development, in addition to reducing poverty and tackling high rate of unemployment in the country.
Another key issue which his government will have to contend with is the economy which is currently contending with dwindling revenue due to the fall in oil prices.

Interestingly, his victory in the 2015 presidential election is coming 30 years after the military government he headed was ousted from power. No doubt, this 72-year-old general will be coming back into office as a democratically elected president with a wealth of experience.
How the NGF Election Crisis Cost Jonathan His Re-election
By Tokunbo Adedoja

When a crisis broke out in the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF) in 2013 following a disputed election between Rivers State Governor Chibuike Amaechi and Plateau State Governor Jonah Jang, many never thought that the crisis in the governors’ club would shape the outcome of last weekend’s presidential election, which was then two years away.

Many analysts had thought that beyond the unnecessarily heating up of the polity and distracting the key gladiators from concentrating on governance, it was just a muscle-flexing exercise between a “recalcitrant” Ameachi, who was then chairman of the forum, and President Goodluck Jonathan. Like in every duel between strong and weak political combatants, the outcome was erroneously thought to be predictable – polarisation and eventual death of the forum, a reduction of Ameachi’s influence among his colleagues, and an end to the ability of the forum to present a unified front against the president and his policies.
Yes, the prediction was accurate. The crisis polarised the forum, weakened Amaechi’s political influence among the 36 state governors, and ended the ability of the governors to present a common front on any issue where conflict existed with the federal government.

But two years after, it has dawned on the presidency that it was a pyrrhic victory. Sadly, it was too late. Jonathan’s re-election bid has been dealt a fatal blow.
How did the crisis in the forum start? Amaechi, a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governor, who was then the chairman of the forum, was accused of publicly criticising several of Jonathan’s policies and using the platform to mobilise his colleagues, a chunk of who were in opposition parties, to oppose federal government’s deductions from the revenue accruing to the federation that should have been shared among all tiers of government.

Even though the presidency could not do much to check him, it waited patiently for his tenure to come to an end and hoped that he would be replaced by a friendly leadership. But emboldened by the strong support he enjoyed among his colleagues, particularly governors elected on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN), Amaechi declared his intention to seek another term in office.
Convinced that he had the support of majority of his colleagues, for the first time in its history, an election was called to choose the chairmanship of a forum that ordinarily should be an assemblage of state chief executives that had no constitutionally recognised role. The presidency quickly deployed its arsenal, creating the PDP Governors’ Forum whose membership constituted the majority in the NGF to foil Amaechi’s second term bid.

Though Bauchi State Governor Isa Yuguda signified his intention to vie for the NGF chairmanship position, Jang was adopted as the consensus candidate of the PDP Governors’ Forum - a bloc vote that should have been the killer punch to Amaechi’s aspiration.
But when elections were consequently held at a gathering that had 35 governors in attendance (excluding Yuguda), Amaechi polled 19 votes while Jang had 16. Both however laid claims to victory, a development that factionalised the forum with each of the two contestants setting up separate secretariats and retaining the governors that voted for them.

As the crisis in the NGF widened, it left in its trail, political casualties. First, the Northern Governors’ Forum had a direct hit. Some of its members threatened to withdraw their membership, with Yuguda belling the cat.
Yuguda was one of the two governors that wanted to contest against Amaechi but later stepped down for Jang. It was apparent to governors on Jang’s side and the presidency that the votes of the Northern Governors’ Forum Chairman and Niger State Governor Babangida Aliyu; Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso; and Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido gave Ameachi the victory in the election.
The PDP Governors’ Forum, headed by Akwa Ibom State Governor Godswill Akpabio, whose membership constituted the bulk of those that voted for Jang, was also affected by the crisis, as those governors who voted for Amaechi stopped attending its meetings.
The NGF crisis later had insidious effect on the PDP as a party. At the party’s mini convention in August 2013, seven of its governors – Murtala Nyako (Adamawa),
Ahmed Abdulfattah (Kwara), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Lamido, Kwakwanso, Amaechi and Aliyu, as well as former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, among others, stormed out of the convention ground. Other than the outcome of the NGF election, the seven governors also had issues with the then National Chairman of the PDP, Bamangar Tukur, who they insisted must be sacked. But Jonathan refused to yield to their demands.

That was the beginning of the New PDP, which later dissolved into the mega opposition party, the All Progressive Congress (APC), though two of the governors – Aliyu and Lamido did not defect to APC. With the loss of five governors, not a few people believed that PDP had been struck by a fatal blow whose impact would only be felt in a general election.
In the end, Amaechi, under whose watch Rivers delivered 1.8 million votes to Jonathan in the 2011 election was to later emerge as the Director General of the APC standard-bearer Muhammadu Buhari Presidential Campaign Organisation, and one of the biggest financiers of the presidential bid of the retired general who had had three previous unsuccessful shots at the presidency. But this time around, it was Kwakwanso’s Kano that delivered a staggering 1.9 million votes to Buhari last Saturday.
Essentially, the NGF crisis that looked like a lambent flame in 2013 snowballed into an uncontrollable conflagration that has now cost Jonathan his re-election.
Culled from ThisDay.

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